The area of disturbed weather to the east of Barbados has been upgraded to Tropical Depression number Eleven as of 5pm, 11th August 2020.
Current Situation:
The Barbados Meteorological Services is continuing to closely monitor newly formed Tropical Depression number Eleven centered near 11.7N 40.0W or about 1320 miles or 2125 kilometers to the east of Barbados at 5:00 PM 11th August, 2020.
Although the depression is currently tracking westward at about 16 mph ( 26km/h ), it is forecast to turn west-northwestward by Wednesday. On its current forecast track, the system should pass well north of Barbados on Saturday 15th August 2020.
Conditions are somewhat favorable for some slow intensification over the next 48 hours and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm sometime late tomorrow. GOES16 water vapor imagery has persistently shown a pool of dry mid-level dry air wrapping into the core of the system from the east and southeast. This is resulting in occasional weakening of the deep convection over the eastern and southeastern sections of the depression.
In addition, 10 to 15-knot mid-level southerly shear is not helping the system to overcome the influx of dry air. By late Wednesday into Thursday, numerical guidance suggests that there should be more readily available moisture for the system and thus increasing the chance of intensification.
By Friday, southwesterly wind shear is expected to significantly impact the system structure resulting in weakening as it nears the northern Leewards.
The next update will be at 12 noon 12th August 2020 or sooner if conditions warrant.
